Can Eric Hosmer Rebound in 2013? - Gary Armida's Blog

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Can Eric Hosmer Rebound in 2013? Stuck

Posted on January 15, 2013 at 08:28 AM.

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The 2013 Kansas City Royals are going to enter Spring Training with the same type of hope that they had last season. The organization believes that it has all of the pieces in place to make a run at a playoff spot after yet another disappointing season. The 2013 Royals are better equipped for that hope given their rotation additions, but they are still not a sure thing. Questions run abound within the roster. Are Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie difference makers? Can James Shields be the ace they need? Will Jeff Francoeur be the albatross that he was last season? Can Mike Moustakas find the form that saw him compile a great first half before falling apart for the remainder of the season?

Those are all important questions, but the 2013 Kansas City Royals� most important question has to do with their first baseman, Eric Hosmer. The 22 year old was coming off a successful 2011 rookie season that saw him finish third in the Rookie of the Year voting. For 128 games, Hosmer gave Royals fans proof that Dayton Moore�s process was a reality. The farm system was really producing elite level prospects.

But, 2012 wasn�t a repeat of Hosmer�s rookie year. It wasn�t even close. The cliche of a sophomore slump stuck with Hosmer all year as the Royals� biggest hope floundered in year two. There was never a point in the season where Hosmer ran into a hot streak, look comfortable, or was overly productive. He never slugged over .438 in any month, never hit more than three home runs in a month after his five home run April, and had equally poor first and second halves of the season.

All of that adds up to a .232/.304/.359 season that saw him produce just 22 doubles, 14 home runs, 60 RBI, and 64 runs scored. The only above average aspect to Hosmer�s season was the fact that he stole 16 bases in 17 attempts. Other than the stolen bases, every single statistic was better during his rookie season when he played in 24 less games. The season is perhaps best quantified by his negative-1.1 WAR. Simply, Eric Hosmer was one of the worst everyday first basemen in Major League Baseball in 2012.

Like the 2012 Royals, Hosmer entered with high expectations and failed to meet any of them. We�ve seen this story quite a bit in sports. A young player comes into the League, has an amazing first season, and then flames out because the League learns how to deal with him. As big of a talent as Hosmer is, it would hardly be shocking if he didn�t fulfill his promise. The failure rate for prospects is quite high.

That doesn�t seem to be the case with Hosmer. Despite the terrible 2012 season, there is every reason to believe that Eric Hosmer will rebound in 2013.

In fact, there is good reason to believe that 2012 was a fluke. Despite the poor season, Hosmer posted a strikeout rate of 15.9 percent. While it was higher than his rookie season (14.6%), it is in line with his rates throughout the Minor Leagues. Even more of a positive, his contact rates stayed virtually the same in 2012 as he made contact on 81.5 percent of his swings as compared to the 81.6 percent in 2011. And, he showed better patience during year two as evidenced by his 9.4 percent walk rate. That�s much closer to his Minor League walk rates that he compiled during his four years in the Minor Leagues. That patience manifested itself in his swing rates. He swung at less pitches in 2012, swinging at 47.5 percent of all pitches (compared to 49 percent in 2011) and swung at 31.7 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, a five percent decrease from his rookie year. In many ways, his approach was more refined and one that indicates future success.

Perhaps the approach was a bit too refined. When falling behind in the count 0-1, Hosmer hit just .173/.222/.230 afterwards. While many batters will see a decrease in production after falling behind in the count, Hosmer�s is rather drastic. The league obviously adjusted to Hosmer, kept him off balance, and exploited some of his weaknesses.

But, that patience approach does bode well. With similar contact rates, walk rates, and strikeout rates, it is somewhat confusing as to why Hosmer struggled so much. There is an element of bad luck involved. It is always easy to point to a batter�s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls Put in Play) and call it good luck or bad luck. It�s actually lazy to do that because BABIP is as much a skill as it is luck. But, Eric Hosmer�s .255 BABIP is extraordinarily low. His .314 BABIP of 2011 was right along league average lines. Last season, obviously, was well below.

Through that lens, Eric Hosmer was very unlucky. If one believes that BABIP is mostly luck, Hosmer�s would explain his 60 point decrease in batting average and 30 point decrease in on base percentage. But, BABIP is more than just luck. The skill part of it is the type of contact a hitter makes. All indications show that Hosmer failed to adjust to the way pitchers were attacking him. His contact rate was the same, but the type of contact wasn�t the same quality it was a year before. His groundball rate rose to 53.7 percent in 2012, a four percent increase. That increase also saw a direct decrease in his flyball rate. Mix in some bad luck with poor contact resulting in ground balls will make for a low BABIP.

All that gives legitimate hope for a rebound. The hope for a rebound is predicated on a better approach at the plate. Hosmer�s patience should result in getting a better pitch to hit, but that didn�t happen last season. With a some better luck and an adjustment made to the pitchers, Hosmer can produce a .280/.350/.475 season with 30 doubles, 20 home runs, and 15 stolen bases. At age 23, that would be a good step forward before he hits his prime seasons.

Hosmer must rebound if the Royals are serious about competing. As much as their rotation has questions, it is an upgrade from last season. The pitching staff will be better. But, the Royals will need Hosmer to rebound in order to boost an offense that finished just 12th in runs scored, last in walks and strikeouts, 8th in on base percentage, and 10th in slugging. With Alex Gordon and Billy Butler producing at their current level, expected improvements from Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas, and many questions about the rest of the lineup, Eric Hosmer�s production is vital for the Royals� 2013 chances.

Because of his plate discipline, excellent Minor League track record, success during his rookie year, and encouraging secondary statistics during his poor 2012 season, it looks like a safe bet that Hosmer will rebound and get back on his supposed path to being a star.

Sound off OS: What will Eric Hosmer�s stats look like at the end of 2013?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes more baseball at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twtter @garyarmida.